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☆ Oil price surge is the No. 1 threat to the US economy, Moody’s economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.

Persons: “, ”, Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, “, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds, “

☆ Don’t be fooled by rising consumer price data, take a peek behind the numbers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —US consumer prices rose 3.2% for the 12 months ending in July, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, which landed Thursday. “Don’t be fooled by the uptick in [year-over-year] inflation,” noted Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. Gimme (cheaper) shelter: Shelter (i.e. “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024,” the researchers wrote. Uncooked beef steak prices rose 2.3% and uncooked ground beef rose 1.5%.

Persons: It’s, Don’t, ”, Julia Pollak, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, —, Anna Bahney, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, That’s, Douglas Elliman, Miller Samuel, Spencer Platt, Jonathan Miller, “, Read, Biden, Michelle Toh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, ZipRecruiter, RSM US, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, San Francisco, Big Apple, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York, New York City, China, Silicon

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ What to expect from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday morning. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February jobs report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m.

☆ February jobs preview: What to expect after January’s blowout report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday. “I think most economists were comfortable dismissing the January jobs data as an anomaly,” Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor’s chief economist, told CNN. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market.

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